Who is currently leading in Hezbollah disarm by December 31?

NO holds at 92% resolving soon. $2.1M has traded, suggesting overwhelming conviction from the market with 0 days remaining.

How much money is behind these odds?

$2.1M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.

How do I read these odds?

This is a binary YES/NO market. NO's 92% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 92% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.

Macro Prediction Markets

Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?

LIVE

8% YES

↑ 0.0% (24h)·Last updated: 2 hours ago

As of August 29, 2026, This market leads at 8% odds with $2.1M positioned by 2,073 trades and resolves March 2026.

Market Snapshot

Resolution Date

Mar 2026

Total Volume

$2.1M

Status

Live

Winner / Leader

No (92%)

This market resolves YES if hezbollah disarm by december 31.

Data Visualization

WHERE THE MONEY FLOWS

$166K staked

Market predicts YES

92%

$1.91M staked

Market predicts NO

Liquidity

$18K

24h Change

+0.0%

Average Trade

$1K

Total Volume

$2.07M

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Our Take

Updated Recently

Market strongly favors NO at 92% odds. As of 8/29/2026, this market has $2.1M traded and 2,073 traders.

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Market Confidence

LOW

Score: 23/100

$2.1M traded · Medium liquidity

WHERE THE MONEY FLOWS

Our Take

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