Today's Signal

France

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — France leads at 18% with Spain close at 17%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~40 days
Total Volume
$1142.6M
24h Change
+$29708K
Active Markets
50
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
France
#1 France
18%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Spain
#2 Spain
17%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks who will be crowned the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by July 20th, 2026. It matters because the winner gets to claim the coveted title, and their team's results, titles, and legacies are forever changed. Market prices tend to move when there are injury reports, changes in team form, or coaching decisions that impact a team's chances, as well as updates on the schedule and matchup dynamics leading up to the final match.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

May 21, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jul 20, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

France leads at 18%, with Spain at 17% -- an unusually tight race -- only 1% separates them 40 days out. $1142.6M has traded across 999,999 positions with 40 days until resolution.
$1142.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. France's 18% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 18% chance of that outcome -- unlikely but not impossible. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
France18%$29420KView market
Spain17%$23525KView market
England11%$18914KView market
Portugal9%$22398KView market
Brazil9%$20371KView market
Argentina8%$20375KView market
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