Today's Signal

April 18

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet — April 18 leads at 100% with April 30 close at 100%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~22 days
Total Volume
$112.6M
24h Change
+$2929K
Active Markets
6
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing — What does this mean?
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
April 18
#1 April 18
100%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
High
Money behind it
High
April 30
#2 April 30
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
June 30
June 30✦ Surprise
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks whether a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah will be reached by June 30, 2026. It matters because a lasting peace would bring stability to the region, reduce the risk of escalation, and minimize economic disruptions. Market prices tend to move when there are updates on military movements, diplomatic efforts, or official statements from leaders involved in the conflict.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market - you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.

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  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

May 1, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Jun 30, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

April 18 leads at 100%, with April 30 at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them 22 days out. $112.6M has traded across 112,638 positions with 22 days until resolution.
$112.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. April 18's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
April 18100%$98600KView market
April 30100%$4370KView market
June 30100%$763KView market
April 21100%$696KView market
April 150%$7833KView market
March 310%$377KView market
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