Who is currently leading in Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

YES holds at 100% 13 days out. $4.4M has traded, suggesting overwhelming conviction from the market with 13 days remaining.

How much money is behind these odds?

$4.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.

How do I read these odds?

This is a binary YES/NO market. YES's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.

World Prediction Markets·Geopolitics·2026

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

LIVE

100% YES

↑ 2.5% (24h)·Last updated: 2 hours ago

As of April 17, 2026, This outcome leads at 100% odds with $4.4M positioned by 21,847 trades and resolves April 2026.

Market Snapshot

Resolution Date

Apr 2026

Total Volume

$4.4M

24h Volume

$114K

Active Traders

21,847

This market resolves YES if israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 30, 2026. Resolution based on official announcements and credible reporting from established news sources.

Data Visualization

WHERE THE MONEY FLOWS

100%

$4.37M staked

Market predicts YES

$0 staked

Market predicts NO

Liquidity

24h Change

+2.5%

Average Trade

$200

Total Volume

$4.37M

💭

Our Take

Updated Recently

The crowd is overwhelmingly convinced YES will happen. High conviction trades suggest strong consensus, but watch for contrarian signals if news shifts.

View Event →Trade on Polymarket →

📰