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🟢 macro

Volume

$202.0M

Fed decision in March?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?97%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?2%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?1%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?26%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?25%

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?16%

Fed decision in April?

Balanced market conditions

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?85%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?12%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?2%

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Balanced market conditions

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?97%

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?2%

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?1%

Fed rate cut by...?

Balanced market conditions

Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?87%

Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?83%

Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?82%

Bank of Japan Decision in March?

Balanced market conditions

No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?93%

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?6%

Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after March 2026 meeting?1%

Fed Decision in June?

Balanced market conditions

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?57%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?27%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?10%

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?99%

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?91%

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?68%

US recession by end of 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Crowd vs Money

Crowd higher (24% vs 21%)