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🟢 macro

Volume

$70.3M

Fed decision in March?

Strong consensus forming

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?82%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?14%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?1%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Balanced market conditions

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?27%

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?27%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?16%

Fed decision in April?

Balanced market conditions

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?71%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?24%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?3%

GDP growth in 2025

Strong consensus forming

Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?90%

Will US GDP growth in 2025 be greater than 2.5%?8%

Will US GDP growth in 2025 be less than 0.5%?1%

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Balanced market conditions

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?80%

Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?19%

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?1%

Fed rate cut by...?

Balanced market conditions

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?69%

Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?33%

Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting?20%

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Balanced market conditions

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?99%

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?89%

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?81%

US GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Strong consensus forming

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?47%

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?22%

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?18%

Bank of Japan Decision in March?

Balanced market conditions

No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?80%

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?18%

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2026 meeting?2%