Today's Signal

After March 31

Updated: 2026-03-03T12:01:27.695Z

After March 31 is ahead at 40% with March 12-15 at 23%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~28 days
Total Volume
$935K
24h Change
+$24.3K
Active Markets
8
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
After March 31
#1 After March 31
44%
Quietly backed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
High
March 12-15
#2 March 12-15
21%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking when will the dhs shutdown end. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $935K shows significant market interest with 68 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 15, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

After March 31 leads at 44%, with March 12-15 at 21% -- a commanding 23-point lead 28 days out. $935K has traded across 68 positions with 28 days until resolution.
$935K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. After March 31's 44% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 44% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the When will the DHS shutdown end? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?44%—View market
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026?21%—View market
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026?15%—View market
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 4-7, 2026?5%—View market
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 16-19, 2026?5%—View market
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 8-11, 2026?4%—View market
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