Today's Signal

How many confirmed Coronavirus cases will there

Updated: 2026-03-03T00:01:11.732Z

Traders currently favor No at 56%, with Yes trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~28 days
Total Volume
$12.3M
24h Change
+$321K
Active Markets
3
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
How many confirmed Coronavirus cases will there
#1 How many confirmed Coronavirus cases will there
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
What will the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi
#2 What will the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi
58%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
What will the USD price of Filecoin ($FIL)
What will the USD price of Filecoin ($FIL)✦ Surprise
50%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking will us or israel strike iran first. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $12.3M shows significant market interest with 4,438 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "US" if the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before Israel does. If Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate before the United States does, this market will resolve to "Israel". If no qualifying strike occurs by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, strikes occur simultaneously, there is ambiguity about the order of strikes, or no consensus can be reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 13, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

How many confirmed Coronavirus cases will there leads at 100%, with What will the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi at 58% -- a commanding 42-point lead 28 days out. $12.3M has traded across 4,438 positions with 28 days until resolution.
$12.3M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. How many confirmed Coronavirus cases will there's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Will US or Israel strike Iran first? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
How many confirmed Coronavirus cases will there be at EOY in the USA?100%—View market
What will the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi be at the end of 2020, according to DefiPulse?58%—View market
What will the USD price of Filecoin ($FIL) be on November 17th, 2020?50%—View market
Will Coinbase begin publicly trading before Jan 1, 2021?0%—View market
Will Kim Kardashian and Kanye West divorce before Jan 1, 2021?0%—View market
Will there be a federal charge filed against Hunter Biden before 2021?0%—View market
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