Today's Signal

Emmanuel Grégoire

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Emmanuel Grégoire at 59%, with Rachida Dati trailing.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~0 days
Total Volume
$3.7M
24h Change
+$96K
Active Markets
4
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Emmanuel Grégoire
#1 Emmanuel Grégoire
59%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Rachida Dati
#2 Rachida Dati
39%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Sarah Knafo
Sarah Knafo✦ Surprise
2%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
High
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking paris mayoral election. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $3.7M shows significant market interest with 1 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Oct 23, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 3, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

Emmanuel Grégoire leads at 59%, with Rachida Dati at 39% -- a commanding 20-point lead resolving soon. $3.7M has traded across 1 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$3.7M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Emmanuel Grégoire's 59% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 59% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Paris Mayoral Election event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?59%—View market
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?39%—View market
Will Éric Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?33%—View market
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election?2%—View market
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel win the Paris mayor election?0%—View market
Will David Belliard win the Paris mayor election?0%—View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms