Today's Signal

2+ days

Updated: 2 hours ago

No clear favorite yet—2+ days leads at 100% with 4+ days close at 100%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~28 days
Total Volume
$23.5M
24h Change
+$611K
Active Markets
4
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
2+ days
#1 2+ days
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
4+ days
#2 4+ days
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
1+ day
1+ day✦ Surprise
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks how long the Government Shutdown will last. It matters because the length of the shutdown can have a material impact on outcomes, affecting many people and services. Market prices tend to move when there are updates from primary sources and credible reporting, especially as deadlines approach or are extended. Prices also shift as the shutdown's end date draws near, with new developments and official announcements influencing the market.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government is shut down for the listed number of days, inclusive of the beginning and ending dates. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying government shutdown will be defined as having begun when the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. The end date of the shut down will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the government is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. If no qualifying shutdown begins by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/, information from official U.S. Government sources, and a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 24, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

2+ days leads at 100%, with 4+ days at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them 28 days out. $23.5M has traded across 6,255 positions with 28 days until resolution.
$23.5M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. 2+ days's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the How long will the Government Shutdown last? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?100%—View market
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?100%—View market
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?100%—View market
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?100%—View market
Will the government shutdown last 6 days or more?0%—View market
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?0%—View market
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