Today's Signal

March 31

Updated: 2026-03-03T18:01:43.985Z

No clear favorite yet—March 31 leads at 93% with March 15 close at 85%, signaling a competitive race.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~-3 days
Total Volume
$1.4M
24h Change
+$37K
Active Markets
3
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
March 31
#1 March 31
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
March 8
#2 March 8
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Medium
March 15
March 15✦ Surprise
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking gpt-5.3 released by.... Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.4M shows significant market interest with 1,930 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.3 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.3, or a general-purpose variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.2, similar to the core-version progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. Model releases that do not resemble this core version progression, such as task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), reasoning models of the o-series family, as well as products labeled GPT-6 or similar, will not qualify for this market. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 11, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Feb 28, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

March 31 leads at 100%, with March 8 at 100% -- an unusually tight race -- only 0% separates them resolving soon. $1.4M has traded across 1,930 positions with 0 days until resolution.
$1.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. March 31's 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the GPT-5.3 released by...? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?100%—View market
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?100%—View market
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?100%—View market
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?0%—View market
GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026?0%—View market
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