Today's Signal

1.15–1.19ºC

Updated: 2026-03-03T12:01:45.612Z

Traders currently favor 1.15–1.19ºC at 57%, with 1.20–1.24ºC trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~7 days
Total Volume
$549K
24h Change
+$14.3K
Active Markets
6
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
1.15–1.19ºC
#1 1.15–1.19ºC
46%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
1.20–1.24ºC
#2 1.20–1.24ºC
28%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
>1.24ºC
>1.24ºC✦ Surprise
11%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking february 2026 temperature increase (ºc). Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $549K shows significant market interest with 181 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" in the row "2026" https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt. If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 2, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 10, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

1.15–1.19ºC leads at 46%, with 1.20–1.24ºC at 28% -- a 18-point lead 7 days out. $549K has traded across 181 positions with 7 days until resolution.
$549K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. 1.15–1.19ºC's 46% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 46% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the February 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?46%—View market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?28%—View market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?14%—View market
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?11%—View market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?4%—View market
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?1%—View market
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