Today's Signal

Historic Pact for Colombia (PH)

Updated: 2026-03-03T18:02:32.997Z

The market strongly leans toward Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) at 85%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~5 days
Total Volume
$320K
24h Change
+$8.3K
Active Markets
4
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Historic Pact for Colombia (PH)
#1 Historic Pact for Colombia (PH)
87%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC)
#2 Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC)
8%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Centro Democrático (CD)
Centro Democrático (CD)✦ Surprise
2%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking colombia chamber of representatives election winner. Each candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on candidates they believe will win, or NO on candidates they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible reporting.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on polling data, endorsements, fundraising numbers, debates, and major political developments. Trading volume of $320K shows significant market interest with 142 active participants.

This page tracks market sentiment, not official polls or endorsements.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives. If voting in the Colombian Chamber of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Chamber of Representatives. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) https://registraduria.gov.co.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 29, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 8, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Historic Pact for Colombia (PH) leads at 87%, with Partido Liberal Colombiano (PLC) at 8% -- a commanding 79-point lead 5 days out. $320K has traded across 142 positions with 5 days until resolution.
$320K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Historic Pact for Colombia (PH)'s 87% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 87% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?87%—View market
Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?8%—View market
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?2%—View market
Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?1%—View market
Will Green Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?0%—View market
Will CR win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?0%—View market
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