Today's Signal

OpenAI

Updated: 2026-03-02T06:02:36.726Z

The market currently favors OpenAI at 81%, with Anthropic at 9%, and the outcome, while strongly leaning, is not fully settled.
0%
📊

Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~29 days
Total Volume
$432K
24h Change
+$11.2K
Active Markets
5
⚡

Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
OpenAI
#1 OpenAI
81%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Anthropic
#2 Anthropic
9%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Google
Google✦ Surprise
6%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
📚

Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking which company will have the best ai model for coding on march 31. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $432K shows significant market interest with 107 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard https://livebench.ai/#/ on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order. The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 12, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

💭
No analyst takes yet

Be the first to share your analysis on this market.

✍️ Submit Your Take

Frequently Asked Questions

OpenAI leads at 81%, with Anthropic at 9% -- a commanding 72-point lead 29 days out. $432K has traded across 107 positions with 29 days until resolution.
$432K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. OpenAI's 81% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 81% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
📈

View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Which company will have the best AI model for coding on March 31? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?81%—View market
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?9%—View market
Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?6%—View market
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?3%—View market
Will xAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?1%—View market
Will Z.ai have the best AI model for coding on March 31?0%—View market
Trade on Polymarket →View All Nominee Markets

Markets are live and updating as the race evolves.

Trade on PolymarketCompare Platforms