Today's Signal

Ciena (CIEN)

Updated: 2026-03-03T12:01:57.552Z

The market strongly leans toward Ciena (CIEN) at 99%, though outcomes remain uncertain.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~28 days
Total Volume
$410K
24h Change
+$10.7K
Active Markets
7
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Ciena (CIEN)
#1 Ciena (CIEN)
100%
Widely followed
People watching
High
Money behind it
Low
Vertiv Holdings (VRT)
#2 Vertiv Holdings (VRT)
63%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR)
Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR)✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking which companies added to s&p 500 in q1 2026. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can position themselves based on their expectations. The outcome will be determined based on official economic data releases and central bank announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on economic data releases, central bank communications, inflation reports, and employment figures. Trading volume of $410K shows significant market interest with 79 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The next rebalance is currently scheduled for March 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index. An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 17, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

Ciena (CIEN) leads at 100%, with Vertiv Holdings (VRT) at 63% -- a commanding 37-point lead 28 days out. $410K has traded across 79 positions with 28 days until resolution.
$410K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Ciena (CIEN)'s 100% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 100% chance of that outcome -- extremely likely to occur. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q1 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?100%—View market
Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?63%—View market
Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?19%—View market
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?12%—View market
Will Pure Storage (PSTG) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?7%—View market
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?5%—View market
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