Today's Signal

200-219

Updated: 2026-03-03T00:00:55.874Z

Traders currently favor 220-239 at 55%, with 200-219 trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~1 days
Total Volume
$42.4M
24h Change
+$1103K
Active Markets
5
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
200-219
#1 200-219
64%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
220-239
#2 220-239
30%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
180-199
180-199✦ Surprise
2%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This market tracks how many tweets Elon Musk will post between February 24 and March 3, 2026. People are watching to see if he'll be extra active or quiet online, and it's mostly for fun, but also for bragging rights and to see who can predict his tweeting habits best. Prices tend to shift based on his recent activity levels, historical patterns, and any big news stories or external events that might grab his attention. Traders are betting on whether he'll tweet more or less than expected, and it's a chance to test their skills and have some fun predicting what he'll do next.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 24 12:00 PM ET to March 3, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Feb 21, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Mar 3, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

200-219 leads at 64%, with 220-239 at 30% -- a commanding 34-point lead resolving soon. $42.4M has traded across 638 positions with 1 days until resolution.
$42.4M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. With resolution near, traders are locking in final positions based on latest information.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. 200-219's 64% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 64% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Elon Musk # tweets February 24 - March 3, 2026? event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?64%—View market
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?30%—View market
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?3%—View market
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?2%—View market
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?1%—View market
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?0%—View market
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