Today's Signal

Sam Darnold

Updated: 2 hours ago

Sam Darnold is ahead at 44% with Drake Maye at 26%, but the race is far from settled.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~3 days
Total Volume
$1.9M
24h Change
+$51K
Active Markets
12
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
Sam Darnold
44%
#1 Sam Darnold
👥 People watching
●●●●●
High
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Attention and money aligned
Drake Maye
26%
#2 Drake Maye
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Medium
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
Kenneth Walker III
✦ Surprise
Kenneth Walker III
👥 People watching
●●●●●
Low
💵 Money behind it
●●●●●
High
Quietly backed
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking pro football championship mvp. Each team/candidate has their own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on teams they believe will win, or NO on teams they think will lose. The outcome will be determined based on official game results and championship announcements.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on team performance, injuries, playoff standings, odds movements, betting line shifts, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $1.9M shows significant market interest with 148 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓This market will resolve according to the winner of the Super Bowl LX MVP Award. If two or more players are announced as winners of the Super Bowl LX MVP Award, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If Super Bowl LX has not been completed, the MVP award winner is not announced by February 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no participant is crowned as the MVP, then this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Dec 10, 2025
Market Launch
Market opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Feb 8, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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No analyst takes yet

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Frequently Asked Questions

As of the latest prediction market data, Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? leads with approximately 44% probability. These odds reflect market sentiment, not polls or official projections.
Each candidate market is a separate YES/NO contract. You can buy YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them. Market inefficiencies, fees, and the possibility of unlisted candidates mean probabilities rarely sum to exactly 100%.
Prices reflect current market belief based on where traders are putting their money. A 28% price means the market currently believes there's a 28% chance of that outcome. Use the Crowd vs Money signals to understand how attention differs from conviction.
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Related Markets

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP?44%$120KTrade
Will Drake Maye win the Super Bowl LX MVP?26%$213KTrade
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the Super Bowl LX MVP?15%$149KTrade
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?8%$148KTrade
Will Rhamondre Stevenson win the Super Bowl LX MVP?2%$52KTrade
Will Rashid Shaheed win the Super Bowl LX MVP?1%$40KTrade
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