Today's Signal

Péter Magyar

Updated: 2 hours ago

Traders currently favor Péter Magyar at 65%, with Viktor Orbán trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~40 days
Total Volume
$25.6M
24h Change
+$665K
Active Markets
4
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Péter Magyar
#1 Péter Magyar
65%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Viktor Orbán
#2 Viktor Orbán
34%
Widely followed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
László Toroczkai
László Toroczkai✦ Surprise
1%
Quietly backed
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Medium
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This event tracks who will win the election in Hungary. It matters because the winner will have control over important policies, make key appointments, and decide how to allocate budgets, which can have a significant impact on the country. Market prices tend to move when there are updates from reliable news sources, changes in polling numbers, or major developments during debates, as well as shifts in endorsements and fundraising efforts. Prices may also shift due to unexpected news stories or challenges to the election process.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected and appointed to the role of Prime Minister. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is confirmed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Hungary; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jul 24, 2025
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
Apr 12, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Péter Magyar leads at 65%, with Viktor Orbán at 34% -- a commanding 31-point lead 40 days out. $25.6M has traded across 1 positions with 40 days until resolution.
$25.6M total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Péter Magyar's 65% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 65% chance of that outcome -- more likely than not. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Next Prime Minister of Hungary event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?65%—View market
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?34%—View market
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?1%—View market
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?1%—View market
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?0%—View market
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?0%—View market
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