Today's Signal

Lebanese Forces (LF)

Updated: 2026-03-02T00:03:34.064Z

Traders currently favor Lebanese Forces (LF) at 53%, with Kataeb Party (Kataeb) trailing.
0%
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Event Snapshot

Time Horizon
~90 days
Total Volume
$315K
24h Change
+$8.2K
Active Markets
16
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Crowd vs Money

A PredictionCircle signal
Crowd vs Money shows who's watching vs. who's backing
i
More dots = more people watching. Longer bar = more money at stake.
Lebanese Forces (LF)
#1 Lebanese Forces (LF)
50%
Widely followed
People watching
Medium
Money behind it
Low
Kataeb Party (Kataeb)
#2 Kataeb Party (Kataeb)
18%
Attention and money aligned
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)✦ Surprise
12%
Limited activity
People watching
Low
Money behind it
Low
  • Includes both YES and NO positions
  • Not investment advice
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact

What is Crowd vs Money?

Crowd vs Money is a signal developed by PredictionCircle to compare breadth of participation versus depth of capital commitment in a prediction market. High participation does not always indicate strong conviction. In some cases, many people express a belief about a candidate while relatively little money backs that outcome. In others, fewer people participate, but larger stakes suggest deeper commitment. This reveals how markets are distributed beyond headline odds.

  • Money behind it includes both YES and NO positions.
  • High money behind it does not imply higher probability.
  • Visuals are comparative, not exact. Not investment advice.
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Understand this event

What This Event Is About

This is a multi-outcome prediction market tracking lebanon parliamentary election winner. Each outcome has its own separate YES/NO market. Traders can buy YES on outcomes they believe will happen, or NO on outcomes they think won't. The outcome will be determined based on official announcements and credible sources.

Market prices reflect real-time trader sentiment based on official announcements, news developments, and expert analysis. Trading volume of $315K shows significant market interest with 140 active participants.

Candidate Markets & How to Read Them

1Each candidate has their own YES/NO market — you can buy YES (they win) or NO (they don't).
2Probabilities across candidates do not need to sum to 100%. You can bet YES on multiple candidates or NO on all of them.
3Prices reflect current market belief, not vote share, polls, or official projections.
4Use the Crowd vs Money signals above to contextualize what the odds mean.

How Markets Resolve This Event

  • ✓Resolution is based on official announcements and credible sources.
  • ✓Publicly verifiable sources and official results are used for resolution.
  • ✓Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
⚠️ Understanding resolution rules is essential before trading.
  • Key dates and timeline
  • Expert takes and analysis
  • Frequently asked questions

Timeline & Key Updates

Jan 6, 2026
Event Launch
Event opened and became active.
Ongoing
Active Trading
Market is live with continuous price updates.
May 31, 2026
Resolution Date
Market resolves based on official outcome.

Analyst & Expert Takes

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Frequently Asked Questions

Lebanese Forces (LF) leads at 50%, with Kataeb Party (Kataeb) at 18% -- a commanding 32-point lead 90 days out. $315K has traded across 140 positions with 90 days until resolution.
$315K total, relatively stable over the last 24 hours. Volume tends to accelerate as resolution approaches and traders adjust positions.
Each candidate has a separate YES/NO market. Lebanese Forces (LF)'s 50% means traders collectively believe there's roughly a 50% chance of that outcome -- competitive but uncertain. These percentages are based on money committed, not polls or surveys. Prices shift when new information changes conviction.
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View all markets in this event

These are the individual markets that make up the Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner event.

Candidate MarketYes %Liquidity
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?50%—View market
Will Kataeb Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?18%—View market
Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?17%—View market
Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?12%—View market
Will Independence Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?11%—View market
Will Watani Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?9%—View market
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